Older AFCE

AFC North Trolling Thursday, Mock Draft Style

AFC North Trolling Thursday, Mock Draft Style
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How correct were they on Jarvis Jones? Only time will tell. More mock: Kiper’s latest Big Board just was just released today, and next mock in six days. By the numbers, he is often considered “elite” when compared to his peers

 

Let the countdown begin! There are just four weeks between now and the 2015 NFL draft, and one thing’s for sure: the NFL thinks you will never get tired of reading mock drafts from their certified “experts”. We know they are experts because they tell us so, usually in a Tweet or in a sports network monologue. They seem to be perfectionists, unless you can come up with another reason for the 15-20 mock draft revisions to make sure their masterpiece is just right. How accurate are these experts who spend 24 hours a day, 7 days a week analyzing college players and determining the needs of NFL teams, before perfectly combining their two knowledge bases into version 17.0 of their mock draft?

…Yes, the “.0” is added to make the mock appear technical or scientific like the latest software package that solves differential equations. Normally a version “_.0” will then be followed by version “_.1”, which never seems to happen with mock drafts… It’s like someone saying “utilize” instead of “use”, which is often incorrect English but gives the false impression of sounding smarter…

Where was I? Oh yes. In general, expect an expert mocker to be correct zero to 25% of the time with their first round predictions (yes, some actually get zero correct out of 32). In NFL mock draft circles, 25% is elite. Not just Joe Flacco elite. I’m talking Vince Lombardi combined with Albert Einstein elite. Of course outside of draft circles, 25% is pretty bad. Not like an Eastern Conference NBA team missing the playoffs bad, but more like Steve Spurier combined with Rosie O’Donnell bad. A low NFL-caliber talent predictor with a lot of loud, hot air. If any members of Sideline Report end up with more than five correct first round picks out of 32, are energetic, and have good hair, please send your resume to any of the big NFL partners. You will likely have a leg up on your competition.

Listed below are the most recent AFC North mock draft picks from the usual cast of characters at each of the major media outlets, 14 total. The numbers tell us that someone is bound to be right on at least one of their picks, but be warned that the lists below are certainly not their best and final mock version. To be fair, the predictors cannot project arrests, failed drug tests, or photo ops at parties, in Vegas, or with rolled up dollar bills… or predict late free agent signings or trades.

Cleveland Browns

Pick 12

Danny Shelton DT Washington (4)

DeVante Parker WR Louisville (4)

Marcus Mariota QB Oregon (2)

DJ Humphries OT Florida (1)

La’El Collins OT LSU (1)

Kevin White WR UVA (1)

Ereck Flowers OT Miami (1)

By Position: WR (5), DT (4), OT (3), QB (2)

Pick 19

Malcom Brown DT Texas (4)

Ereck Flowers OT Miami (3)

Danny Shelton DT Washington (3)

Breshad Perriman WR Central Florida (2)

Jalen Strong WR Arizona (1)

Cameron Erving OL FSU (1)

By Position: DT (7), OL (4), WR (3)

Obviously the Browns would only get a QB in the first if they traded up. I can’t imagine they attempt this on a QB with so many question marks, but as someone said recently, the Browns don’t always make the right decision. On the plus side, it seems as if Danny Shelton is destined to become a Brown according to half of the mockers (the discrepancy in projecting him as the 12th or 19th pick among the mockers is due to the timing of these lists. Shelton has been a rising star during the last few weeks.) Speaking of timing, after Breshad Perriman’s recent pro day (4.2 40), the Browns will be lucky if he is available at 12.

Expect a wide receiver and a defensive force to put on a Browns hat by the end of the first round.

Cincinnati Bengals

Pick 21

Andrus Peat OT Stanford (4)

Landon Collins SS Alabama (2)

Ereck Flowers OT Miami (1)

Arik Armstead DT Oregon (1)

Eric Kendricks LB UCLA (1)

Dorial Green-Beckham WR Missu (1)

Jalen Collins CB LSU (1)

Eli Harold LB UVA (1)

Malcolm Brown DT Texas (1)

Eddie Goldman DT FSU (1)

By Position: OT (5), DT (3), SS (2), LB (2), CB (1), WR (1)

Of the teams in the AFC North, the Bengals seem to give mockers the toughest time (10 different 1st round selections). The Bengals will most likely go with the best available player during this draft.  If Peat somehow falls to Cinci, they should certainly take him. Otherwise its a crap-shoot and depends on who is higher up on their “secret” board. According to the mockers, they have a good chance of landing someone with a name that sounds like “Erik”. My guess is that it would be a defensive tackle, so I’ll go with Arik Armstead if available. If not, they may surprise folks and take a raw talent like Eli Harold, who is starting to make a move up the board and is an extremely fast and disruptive edge rusher.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick 22

Bud Dupree OLB Kentucky (6)

Marcus Peters CB Washington (2)

Landon Collins SS Alabama (2)

Arik Armstead DT Oregon (1)

Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest (1)

Jalen Collins CB LSU (1)

Ronald Darby CB FSU (1)

“Bud” seems to be the consensus and is an athletic freak (sub 4.6, 42″ vertical) but they could easily go CB considering the Steelers defensive backfield issues, combined with so many solid corners at the top of draft lists. If they skip CB this time around, there is a drop in talent. If Jalen Collins is still there at 22 they may grab him unless they want to take a slight character gamble on Peters who has a higher upside IF he can stay out of trouble.

By Position: OLB (6), CB (5), SS (2), DT (1)

Baltimore Ravens

Pick 26

Jaelen Strong WR Arizona (4)

Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin (2)

Marcus Peters CB Washington (2)

Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest (2)

Todd Gurley RB Georgia (1)

Dorial Green-Beckham WR Missu (1)

Eddie Goldman DT FSU (1)

Ronald Darby CB FSU (1)

By Position: CB (5), WR (5), RB (3), DT (1)

Beckham is an interesting pick, and would give trollers plenty of additional ammo. He hasn’t played in over a year, after an alleged burglary and assault (pushing a woman down several stairs) sandwiched between marijuana busts. Nevermind that. Boys will be boys. He is a physically gifted football player.

The Ravens won’t really go this route, but will go best available. If the following players are still around at 26, they will probably go Strong, Peters, then Gordon. the Ravens biggest starter need is WR, but they certainly need depth at many positions. I wouldn’t be surprised at a Gordon pick to solidify the RB spot.

 

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