Buccaneers @ Bills
Buffalo Bills 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
With the prospect of Jameis Winston missing action this weekend with a bum shoulder, we might be treated to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Ryan Fitzpatrick revenge game! (You remember: He was a Bill four teams ago.) I don’t know if you know this, but Fitzpatrick went to Harvard. That education should help him tremendously against the league’s top scoring defense, in Buffalo, with the Bills fresh off a week’s rest. Then again, the way this season has gone, Tampa probably wins 49-2. No matter what, this is a Doug Martin game. Give him 25 touches, no questions asked. Meanwhile, who knows what effort we’ll get from the Bucs’ run defense? In Week 2, they allowed 7 yards on nine carries to Jordan Howard. Last week, Adrian Peterson ran all over them to the tune of 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
Jets @ Dolphins
Miami Dolphins 22, New York Jets 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
There might be some ugly football played in South Florida this week. The Dolphins surely have a bad taste in their mouth after getting manhandled by the Jets earlier this season. If Jay Ajayi can run like he did in Atlanta last Sunday, this outcome will be totally different than last month’s meeting in Jersey. Miami rushed for 30 yards as a team in the 20-6 loss. Of course, Dolphins fans are still wondering if Jay Cutlerwill ever eclipse the yardage Mendoza Line again. Josh McCown merely needs to play an efficient game and not give up the football. Two picks last week led to 10 points for the opposition. Relevant in a one-score defeat, although I still respect McCown and his approach. Back to Ajayi: The Fins are 6-0 when he rushes for 100-plus yards, including a 2-0 mark this season.
Falcons @ Patriots
New England Patriots 30, Atlanta Falcons 27
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Sunday night crew over at NBC will sell this as a rematch of Super Bowl LI, with plenty of 28-3 hyperbole to make you wish you heard more stories about Jerome Bettis being from Detroit before Super Bowl XL. Ah, can’t really blame them. On paper, this was a fantastic matchup … but these are NOT the same two teams we saw last February. The Falcons‘ offense flat sucked versus the Bills and Dolphins when it mattered. New England owned the No. 1 scoring defense last year. Does that stat even compute right now? The D ranks 30th in 2017. While the Pats showed improvement on that side of the ball over the last two weeks, they played a Bucs team that can’t buy a field goal and the Jets (don’t really need to add anything colorful to that). Definitely not improved? The reigning NFL MVP. Matt Ryan‘s passer rating has dropped 29.8 points from last year — the biggest plunge among the 24 QBs who qualify in both seasons.