AFC East

NFL-AFCE Game Day wk 6

NFL-AFCE Game Day wk 6
Luciano 11
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Miami Dolphins 19, Washington Redskins 14

1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)

From: NFL.com

 

The Dolphins have competition as the NFL’s worst team. Unfortunately for Dolfans all in on the team securing the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft, Miami faces all three of the other winless teams (RedskinsJets and Bengals), with the Redskins and Bengals both heading to South Florida. If Brian Flores can drum up one beautiful game plan Sunday coming off a bye week and Josh Rosenmakes fewer YOLO throws, the Dolphinsmay have to embark on a far more complicated path to acquiring their next franchise quarterback.

   

Redskins (0-5) at Dolphins (0-4)

From: ESPN
Matchup rating: 0.0 Spread: WSH -3.5 (42)

 

What to watch for: Washington has the NFL’s sixth-worst rushing offense, averaging 69 yards per game. Miami is the NFL’s worst run defense at 176 yards per game. Washington interim coach Bill Callahan is a big “establish the run” guy, so we’ve got a team that can’t run but wants to versus a team that can’t stop the run but knows it needs

 

Bold prediction: With Callahan stressing commitment to the running game, the Redskins will run the ball 40 times — their highest total since the season opener in 2018. The Dolphins will keep the Redskins under their per-game average, but Adrian Peterson will rush for a season-best 80 yards. — John Keim

 

Stat to know: The 0.0 FPI matchup quality — on a 0-100 scale — is the worst of any game measured since it was first tracked in 2008. This marks the sixth game in the Super Bowl era between teams with a combined record of 0-9 or worse, and the first since 2004. The Dolphins and Redskins are the only two teams in the NFL that rank in the bottom five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

 

What to know for fantasy: In a matchup of two of the worst teams in terms of offensive snaps with a lead this season, it’s worth noting that Terry McLaurinhas been targeted four times when Washington was leading and turned it into three catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. See Week 6 rankings.

 

Betting nugget: Washington is the second team 0-5 or worse to be listed as a road favorite in the Super Bowl era, joining another Redskins team in 1998 (-2.5 at Philadelphia, lost 17-12). Read more.

 

Keim’s pick: Redskins 24, Dolphins 16
Wolfe’s pick: Washington 23, Miami 19
FPI prediction: WSH, 63.2% (by an average of 4.7 points)

   

Dallas Cowboys 31, New York Jets 22

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) | MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)

From: NFL.com

 

The big fear in the Big Apple should be about Sam Darnold‘s ability to fix this Jets offense all by himself. Even with Darnold returning Sunday, I don’t trust the second-year quarterback to debug Adam Gase’s jumbled scheme in just one week. The Jets‘ defense, meanwhile, has played with more competitive fire and competence than expected. This extremely talented Cowboys squad has one of the league’s most difficult remaining schedules after this week, so they better win this one

   

Cowboys (3-2) at Jets (0-4)

From: ESPN
Matchup rating: 39.1 |Spread: DAL -7.5 (45)

 

What to watch for: It’s the No. 1-ranked offense and a two-game losing streak versus the No. 32 offense and a four-game losing streak. Sam Darnold‘s return from mono will help the Jets out of their offensive funk, but the Cowboys have too many playmakers on both sides of the ball for this to be close. By the fourth quarter, it could be a two-touchdown game and the stadium will be overrun by Dallas fans. — Rich Cimini

 

Bold prediction: Ezekiel Elliott will have 20 or more carries after three consecutive games without reaching that number. He never has gone four straight games in his career without reaching 20 attempts. In their past three games vs. a Gregg Williams-led defense, the Cowboys have averaged 137 yards on the ground and had six rushing touchdowns. — Todd Archer

 

Stat to know: The Cowboys’ defense allows a third-down conversion just 26% of the time, second-best in the league — and the Jets’ offense converts only 21% of its third downs, the worst in NFL this season.

 

What to know for fantasy: Amari Cooper is coming off a career-high 226 receiving yards against the Packers, but in the game following his other two career 200-plus-yard contests, he has averaged just 40 receiving yards. See Week 6 rankings.

 

Betting nugget: Dak Prescott is 7-2-1 ATS in his career when favored by six or more points (10-0 outright). He is also 13-5-2 ATS when facing teams that enter with losing records. Read more.

 

Archer’s pick: Cowboys 26, Jets 13
Cimini’s pick: Cowboys 24, Jets 13
FPI prediction: DAL, 72.8% (by an average of 8.3 points)

   

My weekly picks

 

Last week: 2-1

YTD: 10-3

 

This week

Dolphins-Redskins: 20-16

Cowboys-Jets: 27-23

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