Jets at Bears: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: CHI -7.5 | Matchup quality: 42.7 (of 100)
Rich Cimini’s pick: This is a tough spot for Sam Darnold, who will be without at least two key weapons in Quincy Enunwa and Bilal Powell. Darnold, who has a league-high 10 interceptions, will be facing a defense that has 17 takeaways, second in the NFL. The Jets are also a lousy road team, having lost nine of their past 11. Bears 31, Jets 17
Jeff Dickerson’s pick: Khalil Mack‘s right ankle remains an issue, but Chicago’s defense still has a clear edge over Darnold. It is tied for first in the NFL with 11 interceptions. Darnold, on the other hand, is coming off a three-pick performance last week against the Vikings. The Bears are far from perfect on offense, but as long as they clean up their mistakes on special teams, Chicago’s superior overall talent propels them to victory. Bears 29, Jets 24
FPI win projection: CHI, 76.2 percent. The best Total QBR in the NFL over the past four weeks belongs to none other than Mitchell Trubisky, who has an 87.1 over that span. But he might have a tough time keeping that up against a Jets defense that ranks third in the NFL in opponent Total QBR (49.7) this season.
What to watch for in fantasy: Three fantastic games in a row have made Tarik Cohen a safe RB2. Read more.
Chicago Bears 27, New York Jets 16
An interesting matchup between two teams that come from different conferences but have much in common. Both organizations would like to build around emerging quarterbacks with complementary running games, and (in theory) stout defenses. The Bears pulled ahead in the latter category with the addition of Khalil Mack. Like the Jets, however, their secondary flashes sometimes, gets torched others (Brock Osweiler?!). Each team’s ground attack is capable, yet New York has been plagued by wild peaks and valleys from Isaiah Crowell, while Chicago is waiting on that breakout performance from Jordan Howard that harkens back to 2016, when he averaged 5.2 a pop. I like the Bears at home in this game, mostly because they can force mistakes from Sam Darnold. Wouldn’t say Mitch Trubisky is too far ahead of the Jets‘ rookie in terms of development, though.
Patriots at Bills: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Point spread: NE -13.5 | Matchup quality: 34.2 (of 100)
Mike Reiss’ pick: The Patriots haven’t played a game this season without committing a turnover, and that is the Bills’ best hope at pulling the upset, similar to what they did in Minnesota earlier this season. In the end, the Patriots’ offensive firepower should be enough against an underwhelming Bills attack in a game that could be closer than many anticipate. Patriots 30, Bills 20
Mike Rodak’s pick: The Bills’ offense has scored more than 20 points in only one game this season, while the Patriots’ offense has scored fewer than 20 points only once. It is going to take either an outlier performance from either of those units, or scoring from Buffalo’s defense or special teams for the Bills to pull off an upset. Other than a high snap to Andrew Luck last Sunday that went for a safety, neither the Bills’ defense nor special teams have scored this season. Patriots 34, Bills 17
FPI win projection: NE, 83.4 percent. The Bills have a 23.8 Total QBR as a team this season, by far the lowest in the league. Since QBR was first tracked in 2006, only five teams have posted a lower Total QBR in a season, and none since 2012.
What to watch for in fantasy: Tre’Davious White aligns on the perimeter 97 percent of the time, which is where Josh Gordon has been on 92 percent of his routes this season. Gordon should be downgraded to WR3 territory. Read more.
New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 13
Bills win by 30! … OK, I was wondering if any of you actually read these blurbs or simply glance at the score. If Buffalo is to have a chance Monday night, and not lose by 30, three things must happen:
1) The front seven shows up like it did vs. the Vikings, Titans and Texans, producing knockdowns, if not sacks.
2) From that pressure, turnovers must come. Move Tom Brady off his all-too-comfortable perch early. He’s enjoyed the creature comforts of home in Buffalo over the lengthy course of his career.
3) If LeSean McCoy can’t go (concussion), pound Chris Ivory in the first quarter, with another heavy dose late. Exactly nobody loves tackling that guy. I don’t even like writing about tackling that guy.
So … James White scores thrice and the Pats win by 18.
Luciano’s Picks
Last week 3-1, Season total 14-9
Jets @ Bears: 23-30
If the Jets were coming in semi-healthy, they would have had a shot, however, when you are missing all your WRs and most of DBs, this is a tough one. Bears are a good team this year, and unless Mitch reverts back to last year’s version, this one will not be a contest. I expect the score to be closer only because Jets will score some in garbage time.
My biggest concern here is not the score, nor the loss, but the fact that Sam Darnold will not have hi weapons available.
Patriots @ Bills: 43-13
Good news is that the worst offense in the league, the 11.3 per game Bills will play a vaunted defense the 25.6 per game Patriots. Bill should score more than normally. But this game will not be a contest, even if BB decided to bench Tom. Bills appear to get worst every week, which is a bad sign for this coaching staff.
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