Reading hundreds of mock drafts all over the internet, some agree with one another, some way off the norm, one wonders? Is there an exact science to do this? I have methods for picking games, methods that work at a rate better than 50%. I read MMQB’s mock draft yesterday, and Peter King, long considered an NFL expert, admitted that he was right on 5 of the 32 predictions, a year ago. Ventured into the attic for some of the old relics used in the past, found it!!! Meet my crystal ball.
I will not waste hours and time to pick outside our division, because in reality, who cares?
At 13, the Dolphins will have the luxury of not only picking best player available, but one that will fill a need, and one that is the opening day starter. The Dolphins will find themselves choosing between DT-Robert Nkemdiche, OT-Jack Conklin, OLB-Darren Lee, OT-Taylor Decker, CB-Eli Apple. All players that could be immediate starters, but the biggest need remains CB, where although Maxwell was acquired in a trade, there isn’t much else.
The pick: Eli Apple
Eli has good size and athleticism, he will take a year to develop into a quality cornerback, but on opening day he will start opposite Maxwell. Dolphins would have rather have had a shot at Ramsey and/or Hargreaves, but both will be gone in the top 10.
My take: I can see Dolphins fans cheering and hating this pick, however, in our division you must have CBs. The Jets had a thin corps two season ago, and were regularly beaten, same as the Dolphins of last season. Right now the CB position is very weak, not at all better than a year ago, Apple could be the first step in rebuilding a solid DB unit. I like the pick, OT will be the selection in round 2.
Picking at 19, the Bills have a few holes to fill, and they should find a good one. Available will be ILB-Reggie Ragland, DE Kevin Dodd, OT-Taylor Decker, WR-Laquon Treadwell, WR-Corey Coleman. We all know Rex’s love for Clemson players, and Dodd will be hard to pass up, but is it really a necessary pick? Eventually Whaley and other scouts, or even the Pegulas, should be able to get Rex back to reality, and take a player that fits his mentality and schemes.
The pick: Reggie Ragland
Rex’s defense of last season lacked a quarterback, signal caller, a leader, Reggie can be that guy. Ragland is a throwback linebacker, not huge speed, but one that can stuff the run and be very physical in the trenches. He is basically made for Rex.
My take: Ragland has the tools to become a David Harris in this defense, and solidify the linebacking interior for years to come. I’m sure that many would love to see Treadwell, because offensive skilled position picks are always sexier, but Ragland is the smart pick, and a huge need. I like the pick. WR or QB will be the Bills second round pick.
At 20 it has to be best player available, hopefully one that also fits a current need. The Jets go into the draft looking for OLB-DE Pass rushers, OT to groom at LT or replace Breno at RT, and depth at WR, CB, ILB. They will find themselves having to decide among DE-Kevin Dodd, WR-Laquon Treadwell, OT-Taylor Decker. Good can be the pass rusher they covet, but I think Maccagnan begins to rebuilt his OL.
The pick: Taylor Decker
Decker will start opening day at RT, after the Jets cut Giacomini (June 1 cut, a 5M CAP savings). The CAP relief will help immediately, but the Jets will get a mammoth that can eventually be the regular LT. The Jets will go back to the Ohio State well and hope that Decker becomes a mainstay the way Mangold has.
My take: I watched some film, this guy reminds me of Vollmer, size wise, but he appears quicker. He will have a lot to learn, but his size should help camouflage his inexperience. I like the pick, OLB will be the pick in the second round.