Addition through subtraction and mighty mighty Wannstache
Last Week: 3-2.
Won taking Miami as a dog on the road and with the Ravens and Seahawks at home giving points, and lost by again putting faith in the Rams and also by taking the points with the Steelers in Cincinnati. If I could do it all over again knowing what I know now, I’d start to wonder if my numbers are not picking up something with the Rams and avoid them, but I’d still pick the Steelers. The Steelers cover that game without those turnovers, and I don’t think those turnovers represent an endemic problem created by a change in the team this season (offensive line not improving like many expected). This offensive line has been substandard for 4 years. I’m not saying the Steelers are good, just that I still think they aren’t as bad as the lines have been representing.
This where the line analysis is extrapolated from. The rankings are derived from YPPA versus YPPA allowed (YPPA from 2013, from 2012, and the last 3 games of 2012) plus allowances for things I don’t think YPPA picks up on enough like expected INT%, strength of schedule, etcetera, and etcetera.
To the picks!
-3 -120 @Home vs the Big Red Muumuu
My numbers love the Philly passing attack, and they hate the dink and dunk of Alex Smith and the Chiefs (which is every bit as anemic as the passing attack they had last year btw), even though this safeness allows him to limit turnovers to such a great degree. I’m taking the Eagles and giving the points.
+2½ -106 @Home vs Houston Texans
Baltimore could be blind spot because I don’t take into account lost personnel at the start of the new season except to put an incredibly heavy weight on the new YPPA numbers coming out. It could be a case that the loss of Boldin and the tightend is not reflected enough in my weighting, then again the benefit of just going by numbers takes the subjectivity out of it so I am weary of manually changing this after only two games. I like this pick in part because this Houston team has looked significantly less impressive than last year, and this is at home where Baltimore has the second best advantage in the NFL.
+2½ -110 @NY Jets
Oh my lovely Buffalo Bills! I’ve been using you straight up, in parlays, in teasers, drenched in ranch, and I still don’t think the rest of the world thinks you are really any good at all! I’m in love! Buffalos decent power rating comes in large part from the extremely low YPPA they have allowed through two weeks and an offense that hasn’t taken a step back with a rookie at the helm. I’m going to attribute the lion’s share of the improvement to the benefits of a talented defense escaping from the control of the imminently incompetent Wannstache. My numbers allow for a fairly awful season from the rookie EJ in terms of turnovers so I’m not worried about a little regression from him in this game and a few turnovers. The jets have a great defense also, but not much advantage at home, and that offense has been worse at moving the ball than it was with Sanchez last year. If you assume NY’s home field advantage is only actually worth about 1.5 points, you could come to the conclusion that the balance of the betting community somehow thinks the Jets are actually better than the Bills. I obviously don’t see it.
- SAN DIEGO
+3 EV @Tennessee Titans
We can tell the sentiment here is firmly on the Titans with the even juice. I guess that must have been money coming in from the Sharps because I don’t think the public bets enough this early to move the commission like that. That makes me thinks twice, but even on second and third inspection I still don’t see what anyone is seeing in Tennessee. That offense has only been better than the Jaguars. They are averaging 4.9 yards per pass attempt and that offensive line has been very poor so far. The only saving grace is Locker hasn’t been throwing picks and after some research he can go on jeckle and hyde runs. He didn’t throw a pick in the 5 games as a rookie, but then he has a fairly awful Int% last year. I don’t know what to think, but I’m leaning towards my numbers being a little too high for Lockers expected interceptions and I’ll need to adjust that next week. In all events, give me the *just back from the dead*. Also, San Diego’s line has been playing big, that’s big. Phillip Rivers Chargers and the points.
I can’t find another game I am more than lukewarm on so let’s parlay a couple of dogs with great home field advantages who have some pride and a need to prove to the world they still have pulses; The Ravens and Steelers.