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Mikefriedrice’s Opening Weekend Picks

Mikefriedrice’s Opening Weekend Picks
S/R Staff
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Mikesfriedrice’s hot pig fat and crispy bacon plus, plus steamed rice, eggs, scallions, celery, and peas. 

Week 1.

 

BUFFALO @ home   Vs. NE  +10                   Bet $110 to win $100

 

The Bills are still a professional football team (as far as we can tell) and Orchard Park is still their Home field where the Bills have had a very good home field advantage EVEN during the last decade of futility. The bills’ secondary problems terrify me of course, but I think the subtraction of Wanstache should even out the talent loss in the short term. The crux of this position is if someone is offering any team 10 points when playing ANY division rival at HOME on the first weekend of the season, well before any teams have had time to become disillusioned and quit, I’m happily taking it.

 

NY JETS       @ home  Vs. TB  +3                  Bet $100 to win $105

 

We can tell the betting sentiment building against the Jets over the preseason has pressured this line a bit, and because Vegas is reluctant to get off the key number of 3 points they have reversed the juice and are paying $105 on a $100 bet to illicit more support on the jets side of the ledger. I like the jets here because they were a very fundamentally sound football teams last year in terms of blocking and tackling. I actually think the Jets make the playoffs last year if they weren’t starting the WORST QB to start more than 48 games since the liberalization of passing rules 9 years ago. That’s not to say Geno will be much better this year than Sanchez was last year, but I sincerely doubt he can be worse. Despite the big name acquisitions by TB, I’ll still rate these as fairly evenly matched teams until Freeman (recently demoted from Captain) shows consistency and proves me wrong. Take the dog at home.

 

JACKSONVILLE       @ home Vs. KC +4                Bet $110 to win $100

 

This position is more about KC than the Jags. I still hate the Kansas City Chiefs and Vegas loves the addition of Reid and Smith. I think Reid will marginalize the best talent he has on offense (J Charles) and Smith will flounder when Reid is forced to open up the passing game from dink and dunk to real passing offense. I had KC as the second worst team in the nfl last year, 2 points worse than the Jags on a neutral field in fact. Even after adjusting for the addition of one of best game manager QBs in football (A Smith) to the team that had the highest interception percentage last year I’m still not impressed because the KC offense sucked more from a pitiful yards per pass attempt efficiency than turnovers and that should not change. I also think Gabbert should make another small step towards mediocrity this year. These teams are very close, and the Jags are actually getting 4 points at home so the decision is academic. I think this is probably my favorite play.

 

ST. LOUIS          @ home  Vs. Arizona -4½            Bet $110 to win $100

 

I don’t expect Bruce Aryans offensive philosophy and a bad offensive line to mesh well. It really didn’t work well under the same conditions with Andrew Luck last year (they got incredibly lucky) and although Big Ben has been able to make do under somewhat similar conditions Carson Palmer is no Big Ben. I dislike St. Louis on principle but I have to acknowledge they are a mid-tier team in terms of talent and the line play seems to have been steadily improving over the past 2 years, Jake Long is currently healthy, and the Rams do have the third best home field advantage in all of football.

 

All lines from Bookmaker.eu and current as of midnight 9/6/2013.

 

Home Field Reference:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/the-seahawks-and-the-nfls-best-home-field-advantage/

 

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